THE FUTURE IS RUSHING UPON US

We're in for a wild ride. Exponentially accelerating technological, cultural, and socioeconomic evolution means that every year will see more developments than the previous one. More change will happen between now and 2050 than during all of humanity's past. Let's explore the 21st century and ride this historic wave of planetary transition with a confident open mind.

Sunday, May 22, 2011

Outline for Future International Development

The Pragmatist has accumulated enough articles to attempt a general developmental outline for the world until 2050. Version 1.0





Such outline can be likened to an invisible statue on which drops of paint have been randomly thrown one at a time over the last 2 years. The paint drops are of different sizes and some statue parts have been disproportionately hit. Nevertheless, parts of some tangible form can be discerned at this point. Both deconstructive pieces on what fails (unfortunately roughly 2/3 due to necessity) and constructive ones (on what to have instead) help with this project. This is a sort of a wiki meta article and will be the most linked.

The outline is not born out of wishful or idealist thinking but rather out of attempts to forecast where the world is headed anyway, what makes sense via process of elimination, and what is in the strategic self interest of powerful individuals who run the planet. In other words, this outline tries to conceptualize a summary of solutions to some problems troubling not just all the peoples of the world but a forward thinking faction of the international elites. Solutions must be roughly compatible with the thrust of "reality" in order to be grafted onto it and transform it.

A lot of things covered will be very general and seem rather familiar exactly for that reason. Much will also appear fantastical, overly far reaching, and idealist. That is simply due to the still underappreciated and mind boggling technology spawned possibilities of the 21st century post-capitalist world (move to post-scarcity civilization will be more drastic than was the move to agricultural civilization from hunter gather one). It is funny how people who fully understand and believe in eventuality of cybernetic augmentation also miss out on macro level possibilities of post-money, post-wage slavery, post-scarcity, and post-financial parasitism.

There is also the sheer magnitude of the threats that we must avoid no matter what.

What to avoid at all costs?

A) Nuclear world war (for reasons ranging from imperialism to severe resource inequality resulting in a sort of planetary "civil war" between united cosmopolitan haves and united cosmopolitan have nots)

B) Technological singularity arriving into a world as severely unequal as it is right now (in terms of resources available to some homo sapiens versus others). We do not know when the singularity will happen but we should work with 2040-2050 as the deadline to complete much egalitarianism building preparatory work in the socioeconomic sphere. It is to be understood that the environment must be set up where everybody has the right, ability, and cultural maturity to receive free genetic and cybernetic augmentation as soon as it becomes available.

"Economic" (to be replaced with Technocratic


Replacement of the failed field of economics with engineering and science. Focus on what physically works and building more of it. This means mass scale infrastructuralist thrust by every center of force on earth. Elites are to be judged on their ability to build infrastructure and innovate construction methods of building it. This also means a constant and flexible integration of parts of diverse systems that work from every society on the globe and constant mutual learning. Not one model is to be held as the right one in its totality and the entire world is to be considered equally developing. This thinking is to be applied to energy production first in order to make everything else possible.

Exponential construction of energy sources growing a lot faster than human population at all times. Emphasis on nuclear (fission/fusion) and complementary solar/space based solar. This engineering/scientific thinking is to be applied to politics and the social sphere as well (a 21st equivalent of the efficiency movement on steroids to take into account all the cutting edge research).

The base for development is to be units of energy and mass of resources instead of incoherent abstraction (gambling houses like the NYSE or fiat monetarism). Total discrediting of Anglo-style imperialist monetarist capitalism (and its rich man's propaganda libertarian offshoots) will make technocratic central planning thought mainstream in 10 years time. You've read it here first. Much of what The Pragmatist covered will be mainstream and widely accepted pattern of thought in 10 years time. We already see rapid popularization of 1920s-1930s Technocratic Movement memes via widely culturally disseminated attempts like the Zeitgeist movement. These efforts will be copied, elaborated on, marketed for specific regions, etc.

Some healthy competition among technocratic theorists will arise. This will lead to basic conceptual convergence and synthesis while advocating some decentralization to suit cultural needs of localities. A grand bargain will be struck with a faction of elites holding on to the old neoliberal model of globalization in order to phase it out peacefully and gradually (more on this later). Much of the current "dissident" movement and its arguments is rabidly reactionary and will not make it past the smell test in the future.

Social: Renaissance/Enlightenment 2.0

Constantly awakening humanity at large will help with and will be helped by the above. For things like transcontinental MagLev lines, modular cities, and vertical farming grids to be of the highest quality, the human populations building them should be excited and dedicated. Switching to long term thinking and mass scale planetary construction projects provides a tangible life affirming vision for the human herd. This is essential to reduce the severe nihilism caused by vacuum from death of major religions, ideologies (with corresponding reliance on ready made models), and trust in political leaders (realization they are hairless often borderline psychopathic monkeys like the rest).

A call for mass public works projects is a call for humanity to rise to the challenge and figure itself out as well. To provide very comfortable post-scarcity high energy civilization and to begin colonization of the solar system, the people developing it must be developed on an individual level as well (morally, physically, psychologically, and intellectually). Not only will individuals see progress rise before their eyes but they will reap rewards from it immediately.

Infrastructure helps humans to have more leisure time and thus time to self educate themselves even further. This means it helps provide a social thrust towards a much more egalitarian world. Eventually, every homo sapien must have nutritious food and shelter as a basic right among other things. This is basic common sense in a mechanizing world where less than 500 million workers are needed to provide all the world's goods and services. These expanded rights will further allow leisure time for the new Renaissance to develop.

Although there are physiological differences creating limits to human equality, these same differences also provide for a limit on how unequal (in terms of access to resources) the homo sapiens should get. By the time first transhuman breakthroughs begin to occur (cybernetic and genetic augmentations, real A.I., etc) the humans with the most resources should not get more than 10 times those with the least resources. This means that the well off among 8-9 billion hairless apes should have their resources limited to 5-10 times those below them by 2050. This covers size and space of shelter, amount of travel, amount of electric energy, etc.

The best way to achieve this is to make the rise in quality/quantity of resource base of highest ranking members pegged to quality/quantity of resource base of lowest. If top workers have 1000 units of energy available to them, they can get 1100 of units next year IF they raise the amount of units available to bottom workers from 100 to 110. Since the new elites are to be laboring technocrats (engineers/scientists, elites who have to work for privileges instead of living off rents) they would be in position to go about doing just that.

Lets remind the reader that all of this is done to avoid nuclear world war born of inequality or cybernetic implants arriving on the scene of severe inequality leading to the same (first humans to be upgraded may perceive the rest of the herd the way one perceives the mentally retarded). Inequitable distribution of cybernetic/genetic augmentation on top of education/resource inequality would lead to tyranny and horror the world has not seen yet. Efforts to provide shelter and food to all (with corresponding leisure time opening for education) must begin immediately. This will create a virtuous multi-generational cycle of tension reduction although it may not seem that way at first however (as millions become conscious of just how much monstrous inequality there really is).


Politics: The world is to be thought of as one country in the process of unification and consolidation

1) This is key to fully allow for the infrastructuralist vision mentioned above. Efforts to rapidly close the gap between resource availability of best off and worst off must be plainly and bluntly articulated by every political leadership. The reasons for these efforts (to avoid WW3 or violent planetary insurgency) must also be articulated constantly with the same bluntness. All the world's land is to be thought of as belonging to humanity collectively (in practice to world federation of sovereigns or supra sovereign unions). This, in addition to shelter as human right will go a long way towards freeing most of humanity from the political domination of the feudal land lords. Governments are to be understood as being the ultimate landowners whereas the shelter itself is to be owned completely and inalienably by the individuals.

2) The current neoliberal model of third worldification of the first world and first worldification of the third world has done its job to internationally equalize a bit and to spread the wealth around but has now run its course. The time has come to equalize between bottom 10% and top 10% in every region. The global inflationary fiat casino experiment is crashing to an end and will wipe out a lot of wealth of the top 1% (much of it artificial to begin with). The 1% will be vulnerable for a time and provide an opening for central planners and sovereign states to make a comeback and to confiscate oligarch assets, tax, redirect anger from bottom to top, etc.

Although sovereign governments will make a comeback against financial oligarchies, they will understand that planetary unification of sorts within various unions is desirable for reasons of peace, history, and economies of scale (link up publicly owned industrial giants and their resource chains). However, as much as nation state haters may object, it may not be possible to "E.U.fy" every monopoly on violence. That is healthy as long as nuclear stand offs are not allowed to develop.

3) Quality of political leadership is to be rigidly monitored and constantly improved. It is not enough to make people who build and work into our leaders (engineering technocrats instead of current leaders who are shareholders in financial and weapons multinationals). To prudently approach and tackle the solutions to the monstrous problems facing us, we need to keep improving the art of selecting the technocrats. It is advisable that world leaders have live public debates and discussions with each other as often as possible. Populations should compete when it comes to the quality of their leaderships.

A sort of debate/discussion Olympics for world leaders would help. That is something to boast about. "Our president is the most skillful when it comes to applying the cutting edge methods for rapid construction of fusion plants!" "Our prime minister is on the forefront of education reform and shelter construction, we have eliminated homelessness first". Replacement of the dangerous nationalisms and celebrity worship with pride in builders and those apes that improve the herd the quickest (notice I said improve not just make comfortable). Democratic input will naturally find its place in a much more real way than it can ever hope in today's capitalist dictatorships. Global information networks even provide for opportunity of direct voting and discussion for the first time in thousands of years.

A New "21st Century Social Contract", "Grand Bargain", "An Offer They Cant Refuse" 

Just the way the early capitalists entered into co-existence with the feudal lords, the early technocrats will have to enter into peaceful co-existence with the capitalists. The half a billion NTs around the world who are extroverted, aggressive, thoughtful, and have access to Internet based self education for the first time will make an offer to the elites that may sound like the following:

"If you allow us to operate freely and set up regions of total operation then you will not be harmed. Although your indirect political control over the state apparatus will be greatly diminished, although most of your lands and hard assets may be seized with time, your bodies, your families, and remaining assets for comfortable retirement will not be touched. You have played the game of life well and controlled the world. Now you are obsolete and most of you will NOT face persecution for past crimes and excesses. Your children will even be allowed to seek positions in the new technocratic hierarchies. We will have a period of long co-existence where our systems overlap and function side by side and where you will still be able to have some influence. Eventually, like the monarchs of old you will fade into history as every homo sapien on earth is provided for and is no longer physically coerced into working for you.


If you choose to not take this offer you will face decades of unrest and increasing violence since we outnumber you 9,999 to 1. Numbers, technology, talent, and the tide of history is against you. You are outmatched and will lose badly. You will not find safety or honor in any shape or form anywhere you go and this planetary escalation may turn nuclear. You and your children are not guaranteed to live to see the singularity and will not be upgraded to become demigods here on earth. Take our offer of peace, progress, cooperation, and maintain control over something or face losing everything. This is in your best most "enlightened" self interest."

The educated workers will not stand for anything else or any attempts at co-opting technocracy from above. They will also flatly reject any visions that promise high tech corporate neo-feudalism under the guise of "post-industrial green society". No condescending profit based green philanthropy or oligarch backed NGO meddling either. The enduring demand of wage slaves is: shelter and food for all with supporting continental infrastructure (first in northern hemisphere and then the entire earth) to provide leisure time to further build thoughts of egalitarianism.

Attempts to divide and conquer the youth will only last so long. They are becoming too educated and impudent. Instead, time is coming where the elites will be divided among prudently technocratic and conservative neoliberal lines. Forward thinking elites will see the writing on the wall, make the right choice, and stage a comeback hoping to co-opt as much as possible. They will be younger on average than the current banker/ military general bunch. The world may have a real conversation then.

This concludes version 1.0. See you 100 articles later for version 2.0.

Stumble Upon Toolbar

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

British Empire's psychological effect on its population

Egypt about to get civilized
A brief historical recap that may provide some clues about the current North American hegemon







It is no longer a secret that parts of the Western hemisphere have become "the old world". This is primarily seen in the New England region of the United States. There are some glaring demonstrations of this phenomenon. One is billionaire oligarch mayor Bloomberg's admiration of the city of London and Amsterdam (and cheerful co-mingling with their managers). The other is the hideous and embarrassing media fawning over the recent hereditary mafia wedding that occurred in London. It appears that American elites have given up on the project of building a unique and divergent socioeconomic system of their own (1790s-1970s period). No longer proud experimenters competing with the old world, they are now happy to take socioeconomic marching orders and get swallowed up by the original oligarchical mother country. The growing frequency of British accents in upper hierarchies in Northeastern United States is very indicative. It is even written that a British accent sounds more authoritative and sells more product if used in commercials in this region!

Northeast is not only exhausted in terms of ideas but demographically as well. The 2010 census showed a major population loss to the southern states. By many metrics, Texas is now the most powerful and still vital center of the old American system (since they are a few decades behind in development of minimal state capitalism, have not managed to squeeze it dry yet, and have a population yet to be as totally demoralized as it is in the northeast).

Lets look at the British experience and see if anything can be glimpsed from their herd's development. 

A global oceanic empire with fragmented colonies separated by thousands of miles has an infantilizing effect on the citizenry. That is due to the constant relief of social tensions through colonial emigration and the crown's need to use its strongest people to control the conquered. British citizens who had physiological predisposition towards aggressiveness, impulsivity, and restlessness (Myers-Briggs personality types of ESTPs, ENTJs, ENTPs, ENFPs) always had a socially encouraged outlet. These hardy extroverted breeds could leave the socially rigid crowded home island to seek new financial and farming opportunities abroad at any time (go west, east, south young man). The frontier keeps growing as the oldest settled parts are thoroughly divided into real estate rentier turfs under the boot of the hereditary mafia clans. Many other hardy men who decide to stay get drafted anyway and their energy is expanded on suppressing and controlling alien cultures and weaker peoples. Then of course we have the prisoners being sent to penal colonies and various people pretty much kidnapped to be part of the navy (it wasn't uncommon to hit drunk poverty stricken young lads on the head near pubs and have them awaken on ships, I kid you not.)
No more lands to conquer

With the potential lower class trouble makers gone, the crown needs to worry less about actually allowing the people their say and share of the national resources. Lower classes are culturally (and genetically to a degree) purged of possible future leaders and centers of resistance. Paternalism from above is strengthened and becomes more impudent. Those that stay behind are either too physiologically weak, conservative, complacent and/or nationalistic (ESTJs, ISTJs, ISFJs, ESFJs) to stir too much social unrest. Social and economic reform is left to the elites (where aggressive extroverted genes become overly clustered and fine tuned through interbreeding). The number of elites is small and they are one big happy family who went to the same schools. 

Sometimes when social tension gets too great from some military reversal abroad or the economic situation getting desperate, the elites split the parliament and put on a show for the public. Some become "lords" and some become "representatives" of the commoners by deciphering what the commoners want through an upper class lens. In the end, there is always a cheerful compromise. Talented people of middle class status are encouraged to go abroad and become lords themselves within the occupied territories.

The vast majority of the population finds itself either under the boot and bayonet on the home island or in the middle of nowhere and next to hostile natives thousands of miles away. They then view the home island with a sense of nostalgia and admiration. They begin to view the home island as a trade partner and a protector against local rebellions. They start to forget how miserable and oppressive existence was back home. Their children and grandchildren definitely don't know the horrid conditions that made their parents leave (if they weren't drafted or sent to god forsaken lands as punishment for a crime). The crown is viewed as a kind father who brings civilization and not as a belt whipping parent. A super conservative parent who divides and conquers his own subjects. Whites are put against whites with English feeling superior to the Irish. Whites are united against the newer subjects and feel superior to Indians. Indians in turn, are drafted to oppress blacks and so on. (Remind you of anything yet?)

After some time, the British citizens don't even question this mode of existence as it becomes incredibly fine tuned and self perpetuating. The crown and parliament had hundreds of years to learn control and give candy or the belt when needed. British subjects stopped questioning those in charge. The stern crown even dared to call itself liberal, civilized, and enlightened just because it gave the older brothers some leeway in harassing the younger ones. British peoples got to run around the yard doing what they wish while their parent shook fists across the fence at the even more conservative Czars or Emperors next door. Of course the little ones had to do their chores daily.

Then finally came the two big wars and events where up to 3,000 British citizens were being butchered for the crown each day (Battle of the Somme). They also died in huge numbers defending London directly from planes. They started feeling a sense of empowerment and ownership for the first time. So the parent gave them a welfare state. Elites decided that if they continue whipping the older sons they will get punched in the face. So they gave some healthcare and split themselves not into lords and commoners this time but into Labour and Conservative factions. They still dined together, laughed, and were closer socially than republican and democrat heavy hitters in a certain former colony. This worked and the people left them alone. The people did not get a supreme court, constitution, socialism, or checks and balances. The "subjects" (!) still had a monarch whose children tabloids went crazy about. 

The British empire reduced the Brits to a groveling mass without true national identity (to upper classes it doesn't matter what color or nationality those at the bottom are) consuming American byproducts like Budweiser and MTV and being flooded by former colonials from Asia without any solution in sight. This system had the effect of stamping out the self confidence of most people left on the home island and depriving them of sense that they can control their destiny. England is now a rust belt dorm house saturated in alcohol, rapid Americanization due to lack of culture (one larger cultural vacuum sucking in another), and distrust of continental people trying to build something new. New England (new in name only) will continue to fall deeper into a similar hole if major changes are not undertaken by a now gradually awakening population.

There is a happy ending to all this. Parasitism cannot last forever and eats itself in the end (sorry you wont get those Libyan or Iraqi oil fields boys and girls). Once the extroverted aggressive genetics don't have sufficient release outlets and begin to build up, wondrous new experimental projects can begin.

Stumble Upon Toolbar

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Ideology Causes Societal Stagnation

When the ruling 20% of the population (NTs/NFs) overwhelmingly relies on heuristics and ideological shortcuts, the resulting storm of cognitive laziness rots society from the top down. Progress in the 21st Century will require development of a guiding yet non-ideological framework




Before diving into construction possibilities of such a framework, a few words about why this blog is titled The Pragmatist. The name was selected to be in stark opposition to the widely hated The Economist ("free" trade/ neoliberal claptrap/ capitalist propaganda arm of the British intelligence). The Economist has done more harm via cognitive pollution of world's elites than most state propaganda arms can ever aspire to. Countless countries were left in ruins by the sort of rigid one dimensional Trotskyist-esque globalization peddling that a pretentious rag like The Economist provides.

A silver lining to this was that The Economist's underlining assumption (that a certain type of development is the best) has stagnated jolly old England via its rulers. This is similar to the way the Chinese empire was stagnated by rigid adherence to traditionalist Confucian train of thought in the 19th century. If Chinese elites of old had a similar magazine, say The Confucianist, it would undoubtedly deal with alternative modes of development with the same contempt and dismissive patronizing attitude. Just like their Chinese brethren before the Opium Wars, Anglo elites of today consider the rest of the world to be barbarian even if these barbarians are developing more advanced technology and infrastructure. They may not be into the beauty of calligraphy but the various non-development obsessions (and thus unbecoming of ruling elites) are eerily similar.

Why would this stagnation of the English speaking world be a blessing in disguise? For starters, from a global perspective, the socioeconomic decline of United States and United Kingdom will do as much to discredit capitalism as the decline of Soviet Union did to discredit communism. Thus we will finally exit the era of great ideological jihads that marked much of the 20th century. This will seem incredibly unfair to many in the Western world who will think the decline occurred because some idealized branch of capitalism in their heads was not adhered to enough. They have their counterparts in the former Soviet space. For majority of humanity at large however, it will mean mental liberation from rigid "isms". Failure of US will trigger bitter factional struggles in the cities of Berlin, Paris, Moscow, Tokyo, New Delhi and Beijing. It will mimic similar struggles after Soviet collapse and the tidal wave of social change will be tremendous.

In fact, because both superpowers were so intertwined with the ideological systems they mouthed, the discrediting of capitalism will usher in greater change than discrediting of Soviet communism. There will be nothing to fall back on in the minds of both ruling elites and everyday thinking peoples of the world. Chinese and Russian leaderships of today are pragmatic and heterodox yet they still have FDR's social democratic industrial capitalism embedded in the back of their consciousness. China will not be able to fill the void left by US in the minds of world's elites the way US filled the void of SU.

[Note: Democracy will not be similarly discredited since the financial/corporate oligarchies in UK and US provide far less democratic input than the oligarchies of continental Europe. US doesn't have the very basic minimum democratic principle of proportional representation allowing more than two parties. UK's horrid non-inclusive first-past-the-post system makes a mockery of allowing political competition. Lack of democratic input will be singled out by future researchers as the main structural reason why the Anglo kleptocracies reached the levels of irreversible stagnation that they had.]

Well that was more than a few words but The Economist is the devil, it needed to be said. The point is that human intelligentsia wont be free to develop the rest of the herd with ideological "isms" lurking to unconsciously frame all perception. It appears that left brainers are more prone to adapting "ism" systems. That is unfortunate since they tend to be overly represented at the top of various ruling hierarchies.

The more one "educates" oneself about his or her ideology the more neural connections are created within the brain, making it easier to retrieve data. Since left brainers have more sequential processing than right brainers, their brains get the most easily reshaped by system based socioeconomic thought. In other words they build a sort of a neural muscle that aids in spouting one dimensional propaganda. Similar to an athlete just working out one muscle group while letting the rest of the body atrophy. Often having such a brain circuit devoted to a an "ism" feels empowering since:

1) Most of the population (80% who aren't NT/NF) haven't delved into internalizing a system to such an extent. They think anybody with an elaborate enough system must be an expert
2) Half of the intelligentsia (NFPs/NTPs) are right brain dominant and sample data from across a variety of systems and experiences. Their style of conversation relies on drawing horizontally from a wide range of fields. To a left brainer system peddler it would appear that they are dodging the conversation.

In any event, a person deep into system based ideological thinking is prone to debate mode of conversation rather than mutually beneficial discussion where tangible learning can occur. A sort of an interpersonal cold war mentally becomes ever present. An "us versus them" dynamic develops within the intelligentsia. We saw where that leads entire societies.

Previously I touched upon the criteria by which future leaderships will be judged:

1) preservation/expansion of human autonomy
2) speed in construction of energy plants needed for continental infrastructure projects in irrigation, transport, farming, etc.

Providing more infrastructure can never truly become an ideology any more than providing more water and food can be an ideology. If you talk to anybody whose cognitive processes are deeply caged by an "ism", it is highly unlikely that they'll mention the result of less shelter, food, water, energy as the benefit of their ideology. And of course minority death cults can be readily recognized and dismissed out of hand (this unfortunately includes some "post-industrialist" factions of the green movement). Thus we have infrastructure as our first guiding point that is flexible enough depending on the needs of a particular region/climate.

What the ideologues of course differ on is how to get to more infrastructure for humanity. We can't simply use the process of elimination of what's easier in terms of how to proceed. This may open the door to tyrannical political suggestions. Yet how do we make the above mentioned preservation/expansion of human autonomy a guiding point without it becoming a rigid "ism"?

This is a complex topic that I'll attempt to tackle in the next article. Obviously provision of shelter/food/energy and giving more cutting edge democratic proportional representation builds autonomy of the individual. Yet we can't just say "our guiding point should be infrastructure and we should build more infrastructure and build it quicker in a way that keeps expanding the autonomy of all individuals (second guiding point)". Although it may appear as if there are no trade offs with our guiding points, many political factions can easily spot trade offs that can occur (sacrificing humans in name of infrastructure construction or sacrificing infrastructure construction in the name of humans).

Therefore, the relationship between the guiding points needs to be very carefully developed to preemptively deflect accusations from ideologues of various stripes (namely libertarians and those who want to emulate Chinese dictatorship).

Stumble Upon Toolbar

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Mega Engineering and the Economy

Nature doesn't cut back during an economic depression. The idiocy of infrastructural austerity will remove humans from vast stretches of formerly inhabited territory.





It appears that Washington DC is waiting for a new Dust Bowl style event before pushing for mass scale infrastructure projects. Annually increasing water shortages in the southwest, flooding, and tornadoes remain an abstraction to these congress critter geriatrics. They forget that the only thing keeping our economy still functioning (in the face of mass scale looting, funding cuts, and inflationary policies) is the 1930s-1960s era dams, levees, bridges, etc. Would we consider a country like Saudi Arabia to have any economy without its irrigation, its water infrastructure, and its highways? Without constant and often accelerating human effort, the desert would reclaim the whole country. It is the same everywhere. If the current socioeconomic system doesn't quickly roll back and increasingly dominate the environment where the homo sapien dwells, then the socioeconomic system must be thrown into the dustbin of history.

United States still has a major trick up its sleeve, namely the most massive military industrial complex in the world. This enormous job creation behemoth has done a good job at keeping many domestic high tech factories, research labs, and assembly lines running. As I have written, rather than rapidly dismantling the military-industrial complex as many now want, we need to rapidly transform it to serve in the name of infrastructuralism, of physical nation building right here in North America. National guard and army corps of engineers are already often providing relief efforts during natural emergencies (inadvertently created by neoliberal "economic theorists".) We need to utilize the industrial capacity of the military to begin to mass manufacture tools, equipment, and advanced machinery needed to start reclaiming territory from mother nature and to fortify existing human habitats.

We should remember that FDR asked for emergency powers to begin putting large amounts of humans on the offensive against the elements. Quickly arranged industrial armies began to pro-actively open up entire regions to human settlement and development. In the process, a superpower economy was created. Modern technology and macro engineering allows us to make the efforts made in 1930s look like a beaver dam. iPads and social networking start ups on the other hand are a pleasant superficial distraction, not the basis of building tangible human power.

The future US president (or presidents depending on the country splitting or not due to living through a form of debt default) must put to use the technological knowhow accumulated from trillions of dollars spent on "defense"/empire. They must do so quickly to co-opt brain drain abroad and to prevent former defense contractor blue collars losing managerial skills.

We understand that mass amounts of energy will be required for this type of national rebirth. Energy difficulties and shortages will continue in the short term even if the government takes the necessary steps to nationalize key strategic industries (agriculture, mining, energy, transport, middlemen distributors like Wall-Mart, etc). Such nationalizations will make it easier to begin efforts to mass produce hundreds of small fission reactors which will be vital to the infrastructuralist thrust of the future. At the very least, the factories that assemble military vehicles should begin to work in concert with "government motors" (hur hur hur) to mass produce electric vehicles to be used in strategic sector logistics.

It is not enough to simply prevent a humanitarian catastrophe born out of higher prices for energy, inflation related loss of savings, and tinpot dictator wannabes like Scott Walker. It is not enough to prevent a scenario of millions of internally displaced people once gas goes over $200 a barrel, something that may occur even if food is distributed for free to all (since millions would need to drive to food distribution points, something harder to do with rationed gas).

A "reach for the stars" inspirational goal should be provided by a forward looking faction of the ruling elites to galvanize, focus, and concentrate efforts. Macro engineering provides such a vision. Chinese have already began a long term multi-generational effort to reclaim the deserts for human settlement. The final product will make the Three Gorge Dam look like a footstool in terms of human advancement. Both Russians and Americans have very similar continental scale irrigation projects already planned out and ready to go. Not only will efforts like American NAWAPA and Russian Northern River Reversal create dozens of millions of jobs and build powerful economies of the future, but they will greatly reduce this shameful bullying by nature. Humans will stand on their two feet again instead of cowering like rats before the elements.

It appears that millions of young nihilistic Americans are willing to do hard labor for basically free to "find themselves" and escape the humiliating and meaningless service sector drudgery of the dying capitalist world. Lets give these humans a rallying cry, something like "Screw the Cubicle!". I guarantee millions of volunteers would be found (plus there'd be lifetime stipend of food/shelter and retirement at 40). Once the economic crisis enters terminal velocity, real national or subnational leaders will emerge (who cant even be compared to the current mass murderer in chief).

Nevada desert can be turned into a lush forest and/or farmland. It is only a matter of exponential construction of fission/fusion/solar power sources and technology already in existence. If that is not inspirational, nothing is. Sahara and Gobi deserts are to follow.

"But.. but.. Colonizing the Western hemisphere is too expensive!! Colonizing Siberia is too expensive!! Erie canal is too expensive!! Suez and Panama canals are too expensive! Transcontinental and TransSiberian railroads are too expensive! Hoover dam is too expensive!! Man on the moon is too expensive! We want to live in cheap mud huts! Public education for all is too.. blah blah blah"

Such luddite human traitors always get silenced when their children are enjoying a brand new civilization (that grew out of seeds that turned out to be relatively cheap in the long term).

Stumble Upon Toolbar

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

BRIC countries and South Africa

Looking beyond the size of its economy, it gets clearer why SA was asked to sit with the big players. Namely, key geostrategic port location and resources that allows BRIC to better compete with G7 in shaping planetary unification.





If one had to assemble a coalition of countries to serve as the backbone of an alternative future governing order, how would one go about it? Sure, the size of the economy and population would be a key initial criterion in selecting candidates but not the only one. Diversity of underlining reasons for economic strength would be a second one. Just like with humans in a group, a country coalition would function best if there were specializations among them (manufacture, IT, energy, agriculture, etc). A third criterion may be a country's ability to augment the coalition by serving as a strategic bridgehead between member states and others.

This is where Jacob Zuma comes in. Besides being an alleged rapist, he also rules a very resource rich country that also overlooks one of the 3 essential shipping lanes in the Eastern hemisphere. In fact, considering ship size limitations of the Suez Canal and the residual ice threat existing in the waters around Russia, South Africa's Cape Agulhas is likely to continue to witness many super shipping tankers in the future. One should keep in mind that some of the world's biggest tanker ship yards are now in China and that Suez Canal is not dependable since it could be closed down by hostile powers (a prospect all too real considering recent destabilizing foreign pressures on Egypt).

Here we see the 3 routes. Both South Africa and Brazil establish a sort of a beachhead in what Zbigniew Brzezinski called Eurasia's periphery. Each country opens up an entire continent to trade. In addition, both Jacob Zuma and Dilma Rousseff have independent minded socialist background and can link up other BRIC nations with similarly minded regional players like Angola, Bolivia, Uruguay, etc.


There is great symmetry to the timing. As Westerners are trying to reestablish imperial presence in Africa from the north (to counter China receiving 60%+ of the continent's resource exports), BRIC is beefing up its presence in the south. Perhaps leaders of Africa's large resource rich and multi-ethnic nations finally sense that some measure of protection is required. After all, Sudan and Libya have had their oil rich regions amputated in a very brief amount of time. Nigeria, Algeria, and SA thus have a couple things to worry about.

Additionally, Chinese military leadership is worried that NATO's divide and conquer resource grab in Africa may ultimately serve as a springboard to fan the fires already started in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan (China's ally being bombed as we speak). In other words, attempts at Balkanization in the soft underbelly of Eurasia (Central Asia) are more ominous than simple theft. Two of the BRICs have already created Shanghai Cooperation Organization (India, Pakistan, and Iran have observer status) to prevent the exactly the same thing now engulfing Libya.

It would be logical to create SCO affiliated regional security organizations with Brazil and South Africa at the helm (SA, Angola, and Nigeria for instance can unite to provide security that African Union is apparently incapable of doing). In effect, this would mirror the past practice of United States picking a local power and subcontracting regional security to it (see Indonesia and Shah's Iran during the cold war).

The strategic position of South Africa demonstrates the rapid transformation of mentality within the BRIC coalition. Many Western observers scoffed at any meaningful cooperation within this coalition due to diversity of political systems and economic strengths. Now they seem puzzled why a much smaller economy was allowed to join. However, the mere fact that a countries like Nigeria or Indonesia (fast growing, populous, adds a Muslim bridgehead for BRIC) were not invited, shows that there is a degree of consolidated forward looking geopolitical thinking within BRIC leadership. SA has the gold that China and India have been accumulating recently (Russia as well although it buys from its own mining sector) and it got the docks for mega ships.
 
The existence of such strategic movement is most likely explained by prior SCO cooperation. One should keep in mind that SCO was created to put out the foreign made fires in Central Asia (once Operation Enduring Freedom a.k.a. welfare for NATO wraps up, SCO will be doing serious clean up/overspill prevention duties). It is not surprising then that some blurring of SCO's geostrategy and BRIC trade centric strategy should happen. The two are not mutually exclusive and it stands to reason that safety and trade should go hand in hand. China, Russia, India would want to not only ultimately expel Western influence from their neighborhood but move on to peripheral areas of American empire where Washington DC is losing ground. This means Africa first (US never overcommitted itself there even during the Cold War, leaving the dirty dictator prop up work to Europeans) and Latin America second (we'll know the Imperial mortal coil is about to be shrugged off when Mexico is cooperating with BRICS).

Ultimately, if the current Washington backed revolutionary wave in the Middle East is stopped/reversed, Iran will be asked to join. If Iran is successful at forcing out US from Iraq (right now DC and Tehran appear to have an odd couple joint imperial rule over that long suffering country), then the Indian ocean and the coasts of Africa/South America will be seeing more ships resembling this, possibly protected by SCO/SCO affiliated convoys:

Stumble Upon Toolbar

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Comparing Deflationary and Inflationary Collapse


Both mainstream and dissident observers are coming up with "biflation" as an explanatory term to describe where we are as a planetary economy. That is a signal we're in a conceptual dead end (considering biflation has always been with us for the past half a century at least).



Some reactionary factions in the Western world desire a global return to a system of deflationary non-fiat industrial capitalism. I've began to write how "sound money" advocates are actually biting more than they can chew since deflation leads to collapse of capitalism a lot quicker than inflationary fiat funny money system. There's other very serious structural problems with the current world production and distribution system (such as machine efficiency rising faster than demand for workers) but lets focus on inflation and deflation first to see why there isn't a simple escape from current international fiat casino.


DEFLATIONARY COLLAPSE-
Caused by: Wage prices falling less fast than prices of goods
Result: Crisis of overproduction and profit collapse leading to shut downs of industry due to insufficient funds to run it, bringing corresponding misery.
Illustration of Industry versus "Consumer"/Worker deflationary cycle: 
                                                              

Industry makes KitchenBots (representing needed durable goods in general) and exchanges them for "sound" commodity backed currency. Consumers benefit in the mid stage of the cycle until overproduction leads to insufficient capital accumulation and horrendous social disturbance                                




 
1) Industry cycle begins


Pricey and new KitchenBot exchanged  >>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                                                    <<<<<<<<<<<<<< for 100 SoundBucks

Trickle in supply of KitchenBots begins some profit generation,  "consumers"/workers on average spend 2/3 of their total money on needed goods. Wealthier people/ early adopters create trickle of demand for the pricey good


2) Midstage of the industry cycle

Affordable and well known KitchenBot exchanged  >>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                                                            <<<<<<<<<<<<<< for 50 SoundBucks

Lots of supply as mass production slashes the price of the useful and desired KitchenBots yet profits increase on volume, workers on average spend 1/3 of their total money on goods (since their annual salary cuts are less drastic than cuts in the price of goods)


3) Final destructive stage of the industry cycle

Old and busted stamped out KitchenBot exchanged  >>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                                                            <<<<<<<<<<<<<< for 10 SoundBucks

Super supply and insufficient demand leads to inability of industry to make razor thin margins profitable. Profit collapses, capitalists cant afford to run factories and close them, laying off workers/"consumers". Workers on average spend 1/10th salary on goods yet they are now without income stream to afford the oversupply of goods all around them

Conclusion/Possible Solutions: We start out great on at least the light industry level and end up in a brutish destitute 1930s style depression (think of overproduced livestock being butchered instead of sold/given away to keep some profits). Everything grinds to a halt just as post-scarcity is within reach. One must keep in mind that life cycles of various goods overlap yet the general cumulative tendency is what is illustrated above. Possible remedies include introducing fiat inflation (see below) with serious state provided safety nets, war to destroy surplus goods/industry, and the state taking over some production to run factories without a profit motive (see 1930s-1970s socioeconomic experimentation in Europe)

And now lets turn to our current problem,

INFLATIONARY COLLAPSE-
Caused by: Wage prices rising slower than prices of goods
Result: Crisis of overproduction and profit collapse leading to shut downs of industry due to insufficient funds to run it bringing corresponding misery.
Illustration of Industry versus "Consumer"/Worker inflationary cycle:
                                                            

Industry makes KitchenBots  (representing needed durable good) and exchanges them for "fiat" faith backed currency. Consumers don't really benefit at any stage of the cycle until overproduction leads to insufficient capital accumulation and horrendous social disturbance 





                                
1) Industry cycle begins

Pricey and new KitchenBot exchanged  >>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                                                              <<<<<<<<<<<<< for 100 FiatBucks
Trickle in supply of KitchenBots begins some profit generation,  "consumers"/workers on average spend 2/3 of their total money on needed goods. Wealthier people/ early adopters create trickle of demand for the pricey good

2) Midstage of the industry cycle


Well known, yet still pricey KitchenBot exchanged >>>>>>>>>>
                                                              <<<<<<<<<<<<<< for 200 FiatBucks

Industry greatly increases supply of KitchenBots and KB price even briefly dips to 80-90 FiatBuck range. Yet soon enough new KitchenBots appear for 400 FiatBucks while the older generation ones are sold for 200. Industry is now trying to plan production in batches to prevent strong technology generated deflationary trends from surfacing even now. For the average "consumer", industry also designs shoddy goods that need constant replacement. Profit remains precarious yet stable with proper application of monopoly, cartel, and state ties. Workers meanwhile now spend 9/10th of their income on goods

3) Final destructive stage of the industry cycle

Old and busted KitchenBot exchanged >>>>>>>>>>
                                                              <<<<<<<<<<<<< for 1000 FiatBucks

At this stage we see normal consumer market destroyed, leaving only the luxury consumer market left standing. To overcome relentless international competition and fiat related higher prices on building materials, Industry goes all out to create super supply for ordinary people and hope to make money on mass production (whether technologically induced or using outsourced wage slave labor). These efforts fail as total mass production for KitchenBots was never fully developed due to sneaky attempts to prevent overproduction in the mid stage of the cycle. Workers now spend 10+/10 of their income on goods and increasingly only buy essential goods before gradually beginning to run out of those as well. Run away commodity inflation is the final straw of the fiat cycle. Since the rich do not need too many KitchenBots and since the rest of the workers prefer food and fuel instead, Industry begins to shut down factories and lay off people due to inability to fund further operations.

Conclusion/Possible Solutions:

We start out not that great and end up in the same poverty amongst plentiful resources scenario just as we do in the final stage of the deflationary cycle. We have witnessed what happens to a global system and its peoples under shocks from deflationary financial capitalism in the first half of the 20th century (historically, international financial cartels appear to take over the international industrial cartels regardless of fiat or sound status of the currencies).

We have not yet seen a planet wide inflationary fiat chain of collapse yet. This would imply all major currencies on the planet being affected relatively simultaneously via some failure on the part of Bank for International Settlements strategists to react quickly enough to systemic shocks. In many ways, inflationary monetarism allows Industry a variety of tools and more breathing room to play around with prices and thus survive a while longer. Inevitably, prices rising faster than wages destabilizes the whole system as surely as wages rising faster than prices.

Implications and alternatives

It appears that BOTH paths described above eventually lead real industry into a profit collapse and corresponding large scale social crisis (factory management not having the funds to keep production and distribution running and paying the workers). This would occur even if we minimized the influence of capital allocation industry (global banking cartels) on global industrial cartels. Symbiosis and convergence of finance and industry is as organic and essential to the system as is symbiosis between industry and state, banks and state, etc.

Austrian economists have done a good job continuing where original old school Marxist economists left off (when it comes to expanding a critique of capitalism in general). Namely, they ripped into the disastrous consequences of credit growing faster than real productive economy and the "statism" that often allows this. It is rather hilarious that both Marxists and Austrian economists really rely on victory by default. That is, the former group gets legitimacy by saying the planetary capital accumulating system we had for the past few hundred years is unstable, inefficient, and ultimately unworkable even with mass state subsidies. The latter group get their legitimacy on saying the fiat version of the same planetary system is unworkable due to statist interference. "If only we could purge statism from the world system!" This absurd cry rings forth from various corners of the Western dissident movement.

One way to proceed would be to expand the credit supply at exactly the rate at which expansion of the real physical economy occurs. Some dissident thinkers believe we can bypass the inflation/deflation debate by having the state provide credit for high technology infrastructure (thus creating real economic growth). Another way to proceed would be to overlap the dying capitalist system (whatever form it'll take in the next 10 years) with energy accounting. Both can easily function in parallel for a time. Indeed, if we think of the global socioeconomic transition and experimental period in the decades ahead, overlaps and diverse systems running in parallel will be a must. Which of these experimental sandboxes will expand to swallow the imagination of the whole globe will be left for us to determine.

Stumble Upon Toolbar

Thursday, March 31, 2011

Operation Odyssey Dawn and Charlie Sheen

A March Madness Recap: When a Society Mentally Losses It



It began with blowing up over 120 million dollars in one sitting (120 Tomahawk missiles * 1 million+ dollars per missile). The Nobel Peace Prize winner decided that perhaps it is best to divert attention from the fact that US still does not have a budget (and is now down to 56 billion in cash!) with a little bit of the old ultra-violence. Millions of democrats and college students went to the streets to prevent involvement in another civil war in the Muslim world cheered on the mass murderer in chief in his quest to help the oppressed Libyan civilians/rebel army/Al-Qaeda (eastern Libyan cities that NATO is now championing have disproportionately contributed to sending Jihadists to Iraq).

It appears that bread stamps, circus stamps, and diversionary adventures abroad stamps will be the last things to be defunded by American empire (after gutting such monsters as the teachers unions and the EPA). People just need to feel any semblance of power in their emasculated poverty stricken lives even if it means cheering on multi-millionaire steroidhead super bowl players ramming into each other or multi-million dollar bombs dropping on cheap pick up trucks in the desert. This vague psychological association with military projection of power abroad will even be remembered in fond terms after the debt default.

Speaking of winning, this March the country also discovered a new postmodern leader. Charlie Sheen came to embody the American dream within just a few days. Millions rallied to a person with the financial power to not only super engage in (qualitatively and quantitatively) addictions that most Americans already have but who also told the world to go where the sun doesn't shine. The rising economic depression derived mass psychological hysteria has found a champion, somebody who they briefly lived through.

All that's left is for Sheen to run for the office of the President of the United States. California, which usually shows what the rest of the country can expect in the future (financially, socially, emotionally, in terms of paying gov employees with alternative IOU currency, etc), demonstrates the sheer circus that can happen when people are desperate for a celebrity hero. Sheen, Trump, fundamentalist Christian teabagger crypto-fascists rising to the challenge are guaranteed to make for a final absurd complimentary theatrical gasp as money printing and austerity measures go into high gear. Unlike in the last days of the Soviet Union, the disintegration of the national psyche will be painstakingly televised.

And that is at oil just costing $115 a barrel. When it matches its record high in 2008 and moves beyond, we should see things get "gnarly" as entire regions are literally separated from each other due to people's inability to drive. Perhaps then certain characters will be able to conceptualize to the public on how they can start winning outside of this ridiculous circus. Seriously? Blowing up a million dollar missile and losing a 30 million dollar plane while negotiating cuts to the EPA (as the country is slowly being poisoned by gas fracking)? They've even outdone the Soviets in self immolation. The sole Reagan International Airport air traffic controller falling asleep is a preview of things to come.

Stumble Upon Toolbar