Future of Global Industrial Development

Large hypersonic passenger plane being designed in E.U.

Major Countries Will Have a Mission: To become a key piece in a "spinal cord" of world management. 

Their Method: International alliances will become increasingly centered on specific long term goals of industrial production and distribution and less on military or ideological needs as was the case in the 20th century.



The essence of 21st century competition is competition in efficient product output and jockeying for position to be the main link in a global state directed heavy industry chain. Countries with highest capacity to mass produce and distribute complex infrastructure related things will be most able to provide structure for planetary unification/governance and acquire popular legitimacy for it. Individuals in relevant capitals of the world will go to great lengths to have their states be as indispensable within this spinal cord as possible. This involves creating links between so called "national champions" and national industrial sectors in general (and thus political units themselves as public sectors increasingly get involved in the long term planning and funding).

For example, elites in Mexico City may realize that the rapidly growing Mexican industrial sector may not take leadership in the northern hemisphere by itself. BUT if they integrate it sufficiently with Canadian and American sectors then their ability to make influential decisions far up the spinal chord gets dramatically increased. Their psychological ego drive to get better and better seats at collective decision making table will thus drive the countries they manage towards merger.

One might argue that this isn't any different from the process that has happened for the last 400 years as various cartels pushed their governments into cooperation/merger, into international or supranational alliances, and occasionally into warfare with each other over surplus production. One might also argue that the post-hegemonic fragmentation into a multipolar world is also a seemingly cyclical typical occurrence. However, the current process of financial and industrial cartels influencing supranational mergers will take place in an environment that differs from a previous multi polar period of the early 20th century. That is since:

1) Dogmatic economic and political ideology in general has been discredited (with decline of the last two major ideological powers: USSR and US)  
2) Nationalism has been discredited in its older forms by technological globalization and by major migratory flows of humans
3) There is tendency towards continental political blocks that build on and improve on the EU model  
4) Warfare between cartels (and thus the governments they control) is prevented by the existence of nuclear weapons
5) World is now in a fragile situation where:
_____a) Due to accelerating technological progress and the Internet, world's rich find it increasingly difficult to maintain/create artificial scarcity (on at least light industry level) to prevent major profit collapse and corresponding social unrest
_____b) Major transnational cooperation is constantly required (on at least continental level) to coordinate fiat money generation and banking-monetary policy in general to prevent major profit collapse and corresponding social unrest
_____c) Capital intensive heavy industrial production (of fission reactors, high speed trains, etc) cannot really be fully managed and funded by individual cartels anymore and requires constant state/tax payer subsidy, support, and assistance
_____d) Ramping up capital intensive heavy industrial production/infrastructure is required to resolve and manage rapid population growth, resource depletion, and environmental degradation. This is needed in order to prevent civil unrest stemming from these 3 key global issues (civil unrest = major profit collapse = civil unrest).

Although the factors that create current cartel driven tendency towards political merging are not always stated this clearly, they nevertheless direct this process for the most part.   

What is apparent is that powerful egos cannot compete in the old ways via violence or in a free for all technologically enabled resource depletion. Financial speculation has also proven as inadequate to provide a long term release valve for psychological competition. The process of elimination leaves world leaders with a rather novel benign (and rather difficult!) way to compete via production and welfare generation for the people they oversee. 

To help visualize what is needed, what is happening, what will increasingly continue to happen, and what needs to be ingrained in global consciousness as needing to happen, think of this example:

[ There are 5 continents in the world with multiple countries each. 4 of these continents have at least 2 strong industrial countries with industrial monopolies that are cozy with their respective governments. Elites of 3-4 of the continents (North and South American companies may merge on this one) decide to create supranational "Japans on steroids" for each specific heavy industry. With state aid and coordination, a beefed up equivalent to European Aeronautic Defense and Space Company (EADS) is created on each continent for energy, high speed rail transport, bridge/tunnel equipment, air/space transport, modular housing, and a few others related to resource extraction to feed the new "continental champions".]

Obviously a far greater amount of state capitalism and state funding/management is required to create these continental champions. This is made palatable to tax payers via sharing half or more of the profits with government treasuries the way Gazprom does. This rapidly builds on, combines, and goes further than European Coal and Steel Community, Euratom, EADS, Gazprom, and others.

The main goal is not only to rapidly streamline and take advantage of economies of scale in heavy industrial production of energy plants, large energy power plants parts, trains, planes, modular housing, and resource extraction/recycling. The main goal is to turn every continent into a supranational factory making 5-6 broad categories of things needed to prevent global social unrest AND to maintain competition, evolution, and diversity of product within global industry. The beauty of this process is that each country can increase or decrease the level of state ownership/(macro socialism or state capitalism however you'd like to call it) as it sees fits while maintaining the country within the industrial chain. Being part of the chain also creates incentives to boost technological, infrastructural, and social development in all spheres to remain part of and embed further into the chain. The incentives to make holistic improvements are greater than those driven by neoliberal emphasis on reform since success and failure is more obvious. The public can easily tell if their country doesn't have what it takes to design and cheaply construct a large part for a next generation transatlantic hypersonic heavy passenger plane. To catch up and enter the chain, the production capabilities of military industrial complexes should be converted to civilian use when possible and utilized to the maximum.

Additional positives of this arrangement is that a lot more capital intensive experimentation can now be allowed due to pulling of resources and supranational tax payer guarantees. Macro Gazprom type build up in production inefficiencies is more than compensated by introduction of new generations of hypersonic aircraft, mass production of MagLev transport and passenger train wagons, fission reactors, etc.

There is also an Orwellian twist to this new global competition (although a positive one). One can see the 6 continents entering into a triangular macro competition where not even 2 beefed up EADS type super companies can ever hope to fully win. Lets be more obvious. Say there is Oceania Rail, Eurasia Rail, and EastAsia rail all developing newer, better, and differentiated MagLev train products (ranging from magnetic heavy loader factory chain carts, to city subway cars, to transcontinental passenger, etc). Triangular competition like this tends to produce simultaneous launches of product by all 3 entities. This has been observed in product ranging from flat screen television to next generation fight airplanes. We see first seeds of what's to come in the Boeing and Airbus rivalry with China working on its own super heavy transcontinental passenger plane.

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If triangular competition reaches total planetary scale then the cost of the new products, time to make them, and time in between each successive generation of product falls. Yes, there will be entire continents filled with monopolies fused into supranational continental monopolies but it is small price to pay for macro level technological progress. New experimental continent scale protectionist policies and competition over guiding/exploiting the development of African Union should prevent any 2 supranational factories from totally overcoming the triangular arrangement. Tripolar world is dramatically more dynamic as elites within each industrial cluster need to always be focused to prevent indirect strategic collusion between 2 rivals while working and competing with each rival indirectly as well. Anybody who played 3 way chess knows this. Some projects like manned mission to Mars may require occasional industrial unipolarity but for the most part the tripolar arrangement described has sufficient economies of scale to really benefit humanity.


CONCLUSION:

To finish off, these days when evaluating the strength of a country one should overlook non-industry sectors within GDP and focus on 1) nominal value of industrial sector as % of GDP and 2) efficiency within this sector.

Industrial Sector By Nominal Dollar Value and Industrial Growth in 2010

China____________$3.3 trillion______(growth of 11%)
United States______$3.3 trillion______(growth of 3.3%)
Japan____________$1.4 trillion______(growth of 15.5%)(highest before quake hit)
Germany_________$862 billion______(growth of 9%)
Brazil____________$677 billion_____(growth of 11.5%)
Russia___________$666 billion______(growth of 8.3%)
UK______________$521 billion_____(growth of 1.9%)
France___________$519 billion______(growth of 3.5%)
India____________$484 billion______(growth of 9.7%)
South Korea______$458 billion______(growth of 12.1%)

Nominal industrial sector of US empire and key satellites____________$7.06 trillion

Nominal industrial sector of BRIC______________________________$5.127 trillion

The world is a lot more balanced now when it comes to making and distributing large physical objects. Increasingly transnational and amoral corporations like General Electric and Siemens can strangely become a source of transnational pride for billions of humans if they merge into a state fused productive arrangement described above.

Terraforming The Sahara Desert

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Sahara desert is almost the size of United States and Europe. Making it arable and livable is the first great infrastructure project of this century.



Funding! ("I'm sure the article proposes something neat but how will we pay for it?!")

Alright alright ye jaded reader, first things first. International Tobin Tax on financial transactions. When working with Tobin Tax rate of 0.1% (as suggested by Nicolas Sarkozy), plenty of funding becomes available for megaprojects, especially those that are fundamentally transnational in nature. Overall amount of financial transactions has steadily been rising to be 70 times the official global GDP ($ 63.12 trillion in 2010). This allows a United Nations body receiving the tax to collect $4.5 trillion annually. That's substantially more than say, nominal GDP of Germany ($3.6 trillion) and the number will increase if Asian financial centers continue to expand to accommodate neighboring growth and to compete with London.

Transforming 9,400,000 sq miles of Sahara desert will increase world's agriculture capable land by 20% and arable land by 70% (if taken to that level). Benefits of terraforming this particular region include:

1) Promoting regional and global cooperation. Helping narrow the Arab North African and Black Central African geographic, cultural, and economic divide. Creating a breadbasket to be shared by over 10 large countries previously polarized by this divide. Thus...

2) Helping consolidate African Union as a political and economic block. Thus...

3) Allowing African Union to become a powerful pole in a multipolar world. A pole that is able to sustain its own population (which is set to double) and to be in a better negotiating position when exchanging natural resources for advanced machinery from other continental unions.  And of course...

4) Wiping out hunger close to its source and creating food export potential for nearby Indian Subcontinent and parts of Asia. Allowing more land to accommodate continent's industrialization and population rise that comes with it. Thus ultimately...

5) Lowering chances of major regional or global wars, reducing chances of imperialism 2.0 on African soil, and creating additional mechanisms necessary for some form planetary governance (that finally brings about world peace and significant reduction in weapon systems expenditures).

Global Political Feasibility

Pushing for a creation of global Tobin Tax (or any transnational tax) collecting body in the UN security council has primarily Britain as an obstacle. Britain has historically relied upon financial parasitism and used various economic and physical pressures against societies that attempt rapid infrastructural development. Small financial centers like Singapore can be browbeat into compliance via combined pressure of the Security Council. Britain can be pressured by making it clear that its soft power projection ability will be severely damaged for decades to come if it obstructs life saving funding mechanisms for transnational projects. It is way past time for majority of the world's population to make it clear to London that it can no longer defy major developmental powers without consequences. Of course Britain, being militarily occupied by United States, can also be pressured in more crude 20th century ways. At the very least, Britain needs to agree to not interfere in transnational infrastructure projects.

Tobin Tax has a more "volunteer" feel to it as opposed to funding global infrastructure projects via direct income taxation by state governments. The popular mood in post financial crash Western world will also increasingly allow for it. That is especially true if the sheer amounts that can be collected are explained by heads of key states. In elite priming magazines like Foreign Affairs we already see a major shift towards open mindedness concerning global experimentation. Some recent examples of mainstream suggestions are global debt jubilee for first world and a call for a hybrid economic post-liberal system (made by Francis Fukuyama of all people). In their desperation to reverse decline, create domestic jobs, and wrestle some leadership from Beijng and Moscow, elites in DC, London, and Paris should be more open towards terraforming. Their countries have the best technologies and talent for it. It also allows them to put their money where their mouth is when it comes to all the incessant harping of global warming.

Even a partial planetary funding mechanism for arable land increase will find eager sponsors in New Dehli and Beijing. Chinese government is already beginning to implement decades long North to South river reversal project as well as efforts to stop and reverse the spread of the Gobi desert. They will have the mass workforce, expertise (quantitative edge versus Western qualitative), and machinery to contribute in Africa for resource swaps. India's interests in helping construct a breadbasket in the Sahara is self explanatory.

Regional Political and Physical Feasibility

Sahara desert region has the least amount of "not in my back yard" mentality, the least amount of people living in the desert's overall periphery, and less potential for great power rivalry hampering the terraforming efforts (as opposed to say, Saudi or Iranian deserts or the Central Asian plains by the Aral Sea). The nation states touching the desert are generally poorly armed and can be collectively pressured to cooperate with sufficient incentives (unfortunately appeals to wipe out hunger on the continent don't work that well). Over 25 countries are directly affected by the Sahara question. Once the process begins, Sub-Saharan African elites may begin to take over and get creative with it (possibly partially being inspired by the way South American societies are collectively getting out from beneath the USA boot.) Nearly double digit GDP growth in many African states over the last decade helps in this regard.

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Governments of North Sudan, Egypt, and Algeria will require projects to keep their youthful populations occupied and will get on board with breadbasketization of their back yards (even if UN/China/India require a certain long term agricultural quota promise in return for the investment funds allocated). Nigeria, the continent's most populous country and a sort of regional superpower, has a chance to really shine as well. The new Libya perhaps has the greatest amount to contribute with its experience of building world class Great Manmade River.

Southern Europe (France/Italy in particular) have an interest in a stable expanding North Africa that provides a market and corporate opportunities rather than refugees and illegal migrants. France will be looking for ways to expand its influence/leadership into the area to compensate for Germany's present and future expansion of influence/leadership in central Europe. It will be proper since Sarkozy was the first Western world leader to talk about the sheer possibilities of global Tobin Tax.

Process (steps should be conducted simultaneously)

1) Arresting the spread of the Sahara by combining and massively augmenting local transnational projects already in process. Even a sliver of Tobin Tax money can dramatically speed up the process of drawing a permanent line in the sand (ha ha) by bringing world class technical personnel, equipment, and desert coordination. This would be the fight against the 1930s Dust Bowl on steroids. Thousands of kilometers of trees (and possibly genetically engineered specialized vegetation) and bacteria hardened dunes  will create a permanent border.

2) Creating ocean fed artificial great lakes (think Lake Nasser supersized) at the furthest extent of sea level parity ground. This will feed rain clouds that travel deeper into the Sahara.

3) Connecting fresh water bodies of Lake Nasser and Lake Chad by a canal to improve economic communication within eastern Sahara region and to bring economic development closer to terraforming zones. The task itself it just 4-5 times the scale of Erie Canal undertaken in early 19th century. Additionally there must be proper understanding and measurement of the enormous quantity of water under the Sahara and making use of it to supply working settlements in Northeastern Sahara.

4) Making use of bacterial dune hardening as canal and artificial lake "edges" to protect new construction from sand and to prevent sand storm formation. Only a fifth of the Sahara has sand dune formation problem and it can be decisively solved via mathematical "cutting" in proper locations. Making use of the Niger river to feed a series of artificial lakes as well in western parts of the desert.

6) Mass introduction of hardy species, fungi, and plants into reclaimed areas to create new ecologies.

The first stages can be summarized as stopping, partially reversing, cutting up, and making Sahara psychologically and physically manageable to humanity. Stages after that will require mass produced small fission reactors to power human advance towards the Tibesti Mountains.

PS: The word terraforming is more marketable than geoforming or geoengineering as it touches on "space race on earth" concept mentioned in the previous article.

Western Reindustrialization: Science Cities

When certain countries rediscover the political will to engage in macro level high tech industry and infrastructure building, they should keep in mind a few simple things. Physical architecture to spur creativity and plug and play integrated chains from concept to industrial production.




Western elites have a short amount of time to jump start a new wave of industrialization (to avoid being humiliated at international conferences). DARPA and Naukograds provide hints of how this should be done in the 21st century.

It is well known that a creative mind works best in a novel cutting edge environment. Google has long provided offices that could fit in The Jetsons, Steve Jobs knew it with his spaceship office building design, and president Medvedev intends to rapidly construct a hybrid of silicon valley and MIT in Skolkovo (the way IKEA packages a complex table). Chinese authorities are already constructing scientific campuses with top notch imported factory assembly lines as built in extensions.

For Westerners to begin catching up rapidly, the science-factory cities need to be rethought from the bottom up. The effort should be as holistic as the Apollo program was since it would stimulate and push the best of the human herd's abilities. How would an even larger concentrated effort to churn out 21st century machines look like? The science-factory (SciFac) cities can take on a multitude of forms and sizes but the basic framework may take on this form:

1) Location: A brand new dedicated area to house up to 200,000 people has to be set up in a region that is not too polluted by toxins from prior industrial thrusts. The climate conditions should not be depressing, distracting, or prone to too many natural disasters. Scenery should be inspirational for those who get mental breakthroughs from activities like hiking. Elevation above sea level and air dryness are additional considerations. The SciFacs should not be in the suburbs of any old design city (even if this makes resource logistics more difficult and costly, it'll end up being a blessing in disguise). A right country can of course be a giant plus when it comes to rapidly acquiring the right machines for SciFac's functioning. One can of course visualize Germany or Japan and parts of United States as being good candidates.

2) Lay Out: The SciFac city is optimal if it has a shell within a shell within a shell Matryoshka doll set up. The city as a whole can be viewed as a giant biophysical assembly line. Even the working teams can be further arranged via "psychological assembly" and management to fully utilize abilities of different creative breeds.

__a) The inner most central "research-brain storm" core is a well known basic DARPA layout where fundamental science research is done to create a bridge between current breakthroughs and long term potential breakthroughs. Various fundamental science laboratory complexes are to be integrated with novel housing for quick foot travel and each lab complex to have an immediate proximity communal club area where egos of the researchers can play off each other meaningfully. Obviously both the labs and their attached clubs would be like spokes on a small wheel so interdisciplinary brain storming can be unleashed via individualized healthy one upsmanship and tapping into NT narcissism.

__b) The secondary "engineer and engineering research" shell would be a series of institutes for developing practical application of the fundamental research breakthroughs from the core. These institutes can be looked at as continuation of the spokes from the core. Same system of clubs and interdiscipline friendly architecture is present in this middle layer.

__c) Tertiary shell is to have a network of modular easily replaceable factory floors to build and test prototypes as well as tools to make these prototypes. Real working technologies conceived within the core (brief biking distance at this point) are to be made available to continually inspire the humans in the core and secondary layer.

__d) Supporting final shell where personnel that maintains the SciFac city lives and constructs needed supplies. This shell includes high tech automated vertical farm buildings, clothing factories, grooming item factories, security, raw material processing for tertiary layer assembly lines, etc. The reason why things like clothing, food, toothpaste, medicine are built/assembled on site is because it is incredibly easy to do so and because part of the tertiary prototype layer can actually continuously improve these facilities. In fact, a thin pizza slice of a given SciFac (extending almost to the core) can be tasked with just conceptualizing improvements and constructing augmentation of the actual SciFac itself.

This constant renewal is essential to avoid stagnation and to promote the efficiency, culture, and psycho-physical health of the residents. Modularization of the city's buildings and infrastructure aids in this. Additionally, a small city owning the means of production and distribution and providing for its own needs can rapidly become a role model even before first prototypes roll off the assembly lines. Everybody understands that human primates have essential needs like grooming and an automated small factory can easily stamp out enough haircombs, socks, hats, dental floss, slippers, toys, etc for 200,000+ residents. The SciFac can of course be given ownership rights by the public over certain regional mines and agricultural lands to ship the raw resources to itself and streamline the process. Vertical and horizontal integration would not be just for robber barons anymore. Industrial 3D printing even allows consumers within inner layers to design and order batches of unique goods (if a specialized nanolined jogging sweater helps somebody in the core think better by all means let the person have it).

3) Culture and governance: Obviously Soviet or Chinese style regimentation would be stifling for creativity and a substantial amount of social libertarianism is to be the norm. Compartments within each layer, each layer itself, and the city as a whole can easily have direct council democracy with today's communication technology. A scientific polis in action may be more inspiring for outside observers than any TED conference. As with DARPA, the red tape would not only be cut to the bone but scientifically reimagined. Non-hierarchal flat management structures and direct participatory democracy would of course further aid in psychological productivity by reducing damaging ego clashes, providing healthy feeling of autonomy, and even allowing invention of new more humane and efficient governance (within guiding limits naturally so the core city mission is not jeopardized by endless political infighting).

Besides helping in rapid reindustrialization of the Western world, the SciFac functions to groom future cadres of technocratic political leaders. The exclusivity of the SciFacs may seem elitist and scary (raising some people's fears of scientific dictatorship) but it is a definitive improvement over the current oligarchic/lawyer/playboy elitism and parasitic dictatorship of finance capital. It definitely creates much needed experimentation for a more meritocratic and progressive society during a time of great planetary transition and danger.

A properly constructed SciFac city of course can function in parallel with the old society rather than hatching an embryonic socioeconomic replacement but it may be a futile exercise to stop its role model leadership once it begins. Ecole Polytechniques of the world and profit/patent based silicon valley type constructions would pale in comparison if we get a small holistic bubble of the 21st century up and running. Yes, purposefully killing the patent culture within city limits will do wonders for brainstorming while reducing individual neuroticism and jealousy based interpersonal barriers. Out of 7 billion people on earth, staffing will not be a problem. Conceptualizing proper incentives to work within SciFac (besides getting to live there) is the easy part.

Conclusion:

Rather than a massive shake up of society or dictatorial large scale top down attempts at modernization, for some countries a SciFac City provides a rather benign foot in the door towards eventually rebooting the entire socioeconomic system. The public via state credit can easily set up a number of different highly automated relatively self sufficient SciFacs which share and learn from each other while keeping competition friendly.

The militaries of the world have engineer divisions that can quickly clear the needed areas and set up resource feeds for the SciFacs. The aesthetics and actual creativity inducing architecture are for the artistic breeds, organizational psychologists, and potential residents to decide upon. Soviets managed to rapidly catch up in technology and infrastructure using the shell within a shell compact living, researching, designing, and building Naukograd clusters. Dedicated Western power elite factions can do even better and overshoot rising competitors to the East when it comes to getting a top notch idea and getting it to the factory floor to take advantage of economies of scale. Of course SciFacs would function even better if they are international and cooperative in nature. In that case, China can aid in rapid construction of them in return for resource swaps as it has promised with high speed rail.

The public is hungry for state aided experimentation like this as the vacuum of ideas within elite circles becomes more noticeable by the day. The return on these investments stands to overshadow even the space race when it comes to ripple effects of emulation. Simple concepts like a city owning its own factories, farms, and energy sources to provide for basic resident needs (the way they provide police, the courts, and firefighting) will be revolutionary in terms of logistics and living efficiency. People will have a hard time believing it took this long and how they managed to live before such basic common sense practices.

Skyscrapers as Pillars

21st Century deserves to be jump started architecturally. The type of construction that inspires the way first steel frame skyscrapers did


Architecture as Psychological Marketing

One question stands tall in the Western world. How to inspire a new generation of schoolchildren to get engaged in engineering, architecture, and infrastructuralism in general?

It appears that although majority of top notch architects and very capital intensive engineering experts are Western, the youth in Europe and North America are quietly surrendering inspirational architecture to Asians. The cream of the crop of Western designers may themselves be living and working in Asia at the moment. What needs to be built is a breakthrough structure that is a 21st century wonder of the world and that puts European Union back on the global map. Due to capital intensive nature of such a structure, it would help if it is pan-European in origin. A type of building that the whole continent can claim, be psychologically awed and inspired by, and that aids in political and cultural unification. The tourist revenue can be split among contributing nations (with host nation getting disproportionately smaller share or no share as compromise).

Background

The gothic cathedral was often the tallest structure in a medieval city. The toiling peasants in the nearby farmlands saw it from far away as a constant reminder of god's omniscience and the church's pinnacle of engineering. Peoples' filthy huts and short difficult lives paled in comparison to the wondrous skyscraping monstrosities that sometimes took over 3-4 generations to build. On Sunday, the locals got a chance to stop their labor and get inside these buildings where relatively well educated and clean looking  individuals told them what to think. Once the church found out how to support the roof while utilizing less rock for walls, the psychological public relations effect was complete. The peasant mob was bathed by light from enormous windows in gigantic rooms with ceilings seemingly held by god himself. The effect was fearful awe, wonder, and acceptance of the authorities that conjured up such magnificent architecture. The buildings served as visual marketing and bolstered social stability and community.

Perhaps it is time to borrow a page from organized religions in utilizing grandiose architecture as psychological propaganda (to create enthusiasm for secular macro level technological progression of mankind).

So far we had a few things grand enough to strike the hearts and minds of humanity. These are the space program and modern infrastructure such as skyscrapers, dams, bridges, and tunnels. However each has limitations as psychological inspiration towards macro level societal improvement. When inside tunnels and on bridges, the length of them fails to impress due to limited perspective of the person standing or riding. A long tunnel looks like any other tunnel. A bridge meanwhile is but a medium for travel that is passed rapidly. The space program is appreciated in the abstract and can not be immediately grasped.

The skyscraper has the best chance at becoming the best medium to impress since one can interact with it in more numerous ways than a bridge or a dam. The skyscraper's limitation however is that it gains power and engages the mind through comparison of itself to nearby buildings through observation from afar or from atop the skyscraper itself. Skyscrapers also fail to impress sufficiently once you get up close to them since 120 story buildings will not look much taller than an 80 story building. Additionally, the building is still dwarfed by the sky above it as well as by a possible thick cluster of numerous shorter skyscrapers that may be in the nearby area.

Nevertheless, it makes sense to utilize the skyscraper as a building block towards psychological public relations of the 21st century. This is well understood by countries such as China and Dubai. Yet their efforts make a qualitative rather than transformative leap from 1930s Manhattan (in how visitors and documentary watchers are impressed by the structures).

Importance of Megarooms as microworlds

This could be seen  for 100 stories
when looking up within the megaroom

One of the key reasons why tourists still flock to large famous gothic cathedrals is the enormously high ceiling within them. That is also the reason why capitol buildings and many large hotels have ridiculously tall ceiling over one large "megaroom"(that could be over 40 stories high as seen in some Marriott hotels). Just think about how the tourist money would dwindle if the main rooms shrunk in size. Megarooms awe the person within it by creating a microworld that is closed off from the rest of the planet. The heavens are replaced by a ceiling and all other points of comparison are made impossible. Capitol buildings, airports, train stations, and famous churches make people forget themselves and convey authoritative grandness through a large and fully enclosed open space that is not overshadowed by nature.

Skyscrapers as Pillars™

This is where the concept of Skyscrapers as Pillars comes in. The point would be to not awe the person by skyscraper itself but by the enclosed microworld that is being supported.

Modern engineering techniques allow "megarooms" to be well over 100 stories in height. For this to be a reality, the skyscraper itself has to be rethought from its current position as a centerpiece to one of a supporting unit. Additional requirement is integrated closeness that goes well beyond the bridge connect of Petronas Towers.

An argument can be made that spaced out skyscraper pillars supporting a roof (but that open the megaroom to the outside) create the most impressive effect. However, the effect of a microworld is destroyed in this type of modern "Parthenon" version of SAP design. The outside world still plays a role in creation of awe through comparison. A megaroom must be fully enclosed in order to allow various possibilities within it.

For example, the large room within the modern planetarium is one of the most psychologically inspirational rooms in the world. The audience is briefly taken throughout the universe via an interplay of a tall ceiling and high definition projection. One major benefit of a fully enclosed SAP megaroom is ability to project whatever one wishes onto its ceiling and walls. A visitor can literally enter from daytime into an enormous chamber that swirls with sights and sounds so breathtaking as to temporarily render the outside reality forgettable. A swirling planetarium type projection extending over an arc (with maximum tallest point being over 100 floors) would really give visiting schoolchildren a taste of possibilities when it comes to 21st century Western architecture.

Imagine standing in an open grassy field under a beautiful night sky with millions of stars above you. There is spring wind blowing the leaves of some exotic trees nearby. There's also a few groups of people scattered about silently looking up. Then you realize that you are actually inside a megaroom and it is daytime in the world beyond. But the sheer vastness around you obscures the boundaries of the actual walls. The sheer mind bending AWE would be enough to knock some religious people flat on their back and into the arms of belief that extraordinary secular progress of mankind is not only possible but can be extended to great tasks (like space colonization).

One compromise that can be reached with those who want the SAP megaroom somehow open to the world is integration of a relatively supertall (compared to doorways of Gothic cathedrals) slidable doorway. This way the people within can be exposed to occasional view of the outside, the view that nevertheless is dwarfed by the inside. The supported roof can have a small cluster of short structures on top of it (nothing major lets not get crazy).

Pulling off this type of a feat would do for megastructures what large window Gothic cathedrals did to cramped tiny window churches of old. Showing to the world that such a roof can be supported would show the effectiveness of Western technology and engineering for decades to come and inspire generations of kids. Most importantly it would be the first 21st century structure and demonstrate that architecture does not stand still qualitatively. This century's buildings can make 20th century ones look the way those made look the 19th century ones.

In part 2 I'll hopefully have a few sketches ready. I welcome all artistic suggestions on Skyscrapers as Pillars design.

Economic Development Alternatives for United States

The swelling dissident movement in United States will have to start shopping for ideas concerning socioeconomic alternatives in order to make itself viable. What does it have to work with?




The global financial crisis has clearly illustrated that there is a serious vacuum of ideas on what to do next as a civilization. Majority of the public senses (on various levels) that key leaderships of many Western states do not offer much more beyond printing more money, socially brutal austerity, etc. Playing for time and looting are not solid ideas and everybody knows it. This inevitably opens up society to ideas from below which will eventually result in part of the elite siding with these ideas to co-opt them and ride them to power.

In United States, we saw the libertarian critique meme and the reactionary "going back to FDR policies" meme rapidly become dominant online over the last 2 years. Collapsist and neofeudalism memes are also about to become dominant. Collapsism in particular forces future oriented thought. The non-Internet world is quickly following behind since it took researchers a year or so to educate themselves about the fraud that caused the crisis, to put their books out, and then another few months for people to read the books. Various socially visible pundits can now defer to books as authoritative sources in speaking up. The market for new type of demagogy (talk radio being the old type) is nowhere near to being saturated.

This awakening resembles a sort of a popular front in the making since people from diverse ideological backgrounds are creating a consensus of what they are against (federal reserve corruption, military eating most resources, financial oligarchy and its personal lawyer/butler [US congress]). A marriage of convenience of this sort is usually created when all other options are exhausted and it will split into petty infighting once the current regime is changed.

All the accelerating muckraking and massive corruption exposures going on currently will begin to create a dissident critical mass in the near future. This is due to the gently exponential curve that is word of mouth communication and most importantly due to some elites sensing that popular sentiment now allows certain things to be safely discussed on a national level. Like in a jury herd dynamic, a minority of consistent and tireless individuals can swing the entire group whether at elite level, the level of a bar or church, or national level. The vacuum of workable ideas in leadership allows such informational waves to spread and take hold rapidly. It may have taken Christianity 300 years to become a dominant meme but with present communication technology, informational "viruses" can do the trick in just years.

In interesting times like these, small but very narrative consistent groups have disproportionate amount of influence. Notice how quickly Ron Paul's faction went from being an ignored laughing stock to being a respected dissident movement (the mere fact that some oligarchs partially co-opted it with funding demonstrates level of genuine popular support). The great budding coalition of groups who usually don't want anything to do with one another (but who realize they got a common enemy) is gaining strength by the week. The awakening process does not even need to take hold of most people. A society historically needs maybe 1/4 to 1/3 of people to substantially switch their world view in order for real transition to start happening. 1/3 of the population can always be counted on to defend status quo to the last while 1/3 can be counted on to be an apathetic mushy middle that joins whoever seems to be winning or is more popular.

How will ideas be judged, what determines which will win out?

Market of ideas is limited by two things. 

1) Practicality of an idea. This means the degree to which an idea is compatible with unfolding social and physical dynamics of human civilization (can't have genuine feudalism, monarchies, or theocracies in 21st century with hundreds of millions of educated people). In a way, the strongest idea is one which is predictive of where we're pretty much headed anyway. This criteria can be said to be desirability of the good (functionality determining desirability).

2) How quickly it can be internalized by the public at large. If one needs to read too many books to understand and accept an idea, then it really is not that great. An idea having been popular previously at some point in history greatly helps with this. This criteria can be said to be the knowledgeableness of the buyer to determine which good is desirable.

So what's on the market presently?

I am going to focus on United States since in many ways the problems of United States show to the world the problems that they themselves will face very soon. The ideas that the American people adapt to resurrect themselves will eventually (if not immediately) be influential on a planetary scale after a couple of decades. The following are listed in no particular order of importance.

a) Reactionary "going back to FDR style" Keynesian monetarism, sound money, and rapid infrastructural development

b) Reactionary "going back to the John Quincy Adams style" American credit system, sound money, and rapid infrastructural development

c) Reactionary "going back to industrial robber baron style" brief and unstable period of something resembling what the libertarian faction wants. Some haphazard and rapid ego driven infrastructural development.

d) American version of Leninist New Economic Policy and very rapid infrastructural development

e) Emulation of Chinese style oligarchic dictatorship and rapid infrastructural development

f) Post-monetarist energy accounting Technocracy and very rapid infrastructural development


SPOILER ALERT:

It'll end up being f) eventually but not before one or more of the others are torturously tried, muddled through, combined, and recombined. In effect, a)-e) are a connecting bridge of experimentation that will make f) possible in due time. Some areas of the country and the world may experience de facto libertarian c) environment due to only the local oligarchs having developmental resources (see Abramovich in his post as governor of Chukotka). Such frightful old school oligarchy should not really spread too quickly before rapid backlash into other choices. There is also the matter of deflation stifling its development. Therefore the libertarian faction is primarily useful as a vibrant "rural power" part of the popular front. They will quickly fade as America's socioeconomic failure discredits capitalism (fairly or unfairly) in the eyes of humanity at large.

Emulation of Chinese police state e) and industrial worker exploitation may be preferred by one wing of American oligarchy (while the other wing seems to want perpetual banana republic style oligarchic military dictatorship with sprinkles of c)). This is due to China already combining various structural characteristics of a)-d) in one package. American version of Putinism is the other "softer" alternative to this. Neither are sustainable long term since they do not address the problem of exponential progress of technology consistently increasing planetary unemployment. There will also be the issue of China entering it's "America in the 1930s" period of industrial depression and crisis of overproduction (which in turn stands to discredit that country briefly in the eyes of the world).

We can begin to see how process of elimination reduces the extent to which the current ideas on the market will be utilized. For the older generation, some elements of a) can be used to provide them peace of mind, continuity towards the end of life, and as marketing to politically sell rapid increase in state intervention. Then, for the younger generations, the mythical elements of b) combined with the edginess of d) may follow to demonstrate that rapid infrastructural progress really is occurring and to provide the future American regime with legitimacy (it'll definitely be needing it). Transition period of the next 30 years will definitely be turbulent and interesting for all involved. We must consistently remain vigilant throughout the process to make sure the rich do not derail the experimentation into something truly frightening (which would make us wish for the old USA back).

The current projected neofeudalism is to be avoided at all costs

                                                                            VS

What Jobs Will be Replaced by Robots?

Japan style plunge into robotics (and subsequent decimation of service sector employment) is essential for reconstruction of Western socioeconomics into a more humane form.



It may sound like madness to support further automation of labor during a historically significant economic depression. However, just like the proverbial bandaid, it is better for Western businesses and organizations to streamline themselves through robotics rapidly for the following two reasons:

1) Visible presence of robots outside their traditional places (factory assembly lines) will spur real national debate on the inevitable and irreversible historic process of ever rising unemployment due to mechanization. It is unlikely that generation Y will embrace neo-Luddite movement but rather will begin to clamor for an advanced high tech welfare state that Japan is seemingly moving towards. The bandaid being ripped off quickly will result in the rapid onset of shock that is spread across class and geographic lines as it will primarily decimate the demeaning service sector (that even children of the upper middle class often rely on). This in turn will help birth a diverse coalition of people across the political spectrum that applies heavy political pressure to create livable stipends and measures dealing with human displacement. We already see aspects of this in Germany and Japan as these societies do not rely (to nearly the same degree) on pseudo-serf labor of immigrants but choose to have ever more clean and automated farms and factories.

2) Contrary to popular belief, baby boomers retiring across the industrialized world will not free up enough job openings to arrest the process of mechanization and human replacement. That is due to technological progress in artificial intelligence software and robotics being an exponentially accelerating one. It is better to harness and direct the process proactively rather than to prolong the pain that comes from service sector illusions and their ridiculous broken promises. It is no secret at this point that white collar workers are being equally squeezed by technology as Internet has wiped out entire swaths of their employment in the last 20 years. Technology and robotics has removed more jobs worldwide than any sort of outsourcing or reliance on underpaid migrants. Public embrace of automation stands to permanently reduce daily and weekly working hours after there is fundamental understanding of what's occurring.

Japan has pledged to make robotics the backbone of its economy in the next 30 years. This means mass assembly and taking advantage of economies of scale to soon make robots an affordable investment for small business owners. So what areas can the robots move into?

1) Bartenders

There is absolutely no reason to have human bartenders in vast majority of the bars. Sure, upper classes will continue desiring human servile labor to be present to provide psychological feeling of dominance but majority of bars are dingy barely maintained ways to make a quick return on the owner's investment (just visit Manhattan). If the owner thinks the bar is being patronized just because of sexually attractive workers and their idle chatter, that is fine. Mechanization allows focus and sex appeal to be transfered towards musical acts and other attractions that customers are often there for in the first place. The robotic bartender itself will provide a spectacle as this video of an early model shows. It is a great investment that creates efficiencies in reliability, speed, and fun factor of drink pouring. Technically a large bar just requires one human guard.

"What if it breaks!!?? The night is over!!" What if the refrigeration system breaks or the lights or.. Not an argument.

2) City Bus and Subway Drivers

Now that DARPA is actively testing automated cars that successfully drive in human traffic (with the help of congressional act to make 1/3 of military convoy vehicles automated by 2015), there is no reason to have safe linear routes manned by humans. Many cities in the world already have a dedicated bus route all to itself, making robot driver's job all the more easier.

"What if it breaks!!?? The night is over!!" Really? Again? Reliance on certain car software is increasing and many drivers currently take the auto features that they use for granted. It is much easier to provide safe autopilot for a linear subway and bus route. Multiple failsafes to brake the vehicle can be implemented along with redundancies. We aren't sending a probe to Mars here.

3) Certain Types of Cooks

Here is a video of a robot that makes noodles. Today fresh noodles, tomorrow pizzas, bagels, hamburgers, etc. A robot like this contains within it the entire assembly line so things like noodles can be transformed from raw ingredients to final steaming form on a plate. Future models will be a qualitative step above the glorified vending machines like this pizza bot in Italy. Fast food corporations will be the first to jump on these machines and thus lower their price through mass bargaining (as well as the price of final product of course). Smaller chains will follow as quality of the finished fresh product will not differ from mom and pop business cookery. Creative touches can be manually added to the programming or downloaded. Obviously the need for cooks will remain and those who are left will have more time and freedom to get creative.

4) Traffic Police

Cars in 50 mile an hour zone can easily be made to not be able to go above 50 miles an hour. This is not technically a robot example but demonstrates the thought process we should embrace. If governments are actually serious about preventing road deaths (instead of just using speed limits to cynically bolster local finances with fees), then it follows that new cars should automatically adjust their speed ceiling based on the zone they are entering. Modern WiFi tech more than allows for it. Obviously there would be an emergency override switch in case of crime or health emergencies that automatically notifies relevant authorities.

5) Other Types of Catering

The reason why I separated bartenders and cooks from the umbrella of catering is to illustrate that pretty much most demeaning jobs are replaceable (if not altogether then in parts). There will definitely be a transition period where robots are gradually introduced into one part of the catering chain and work with humans. Although modern automated locomotion (either based on offshoots of segway transport or actual mechanical legs) is remarkably stable, robotic waitresses will be the final development. When people go to restaurants, many still have this pathological feudal desire to be served (the way they serve others during long week) so a robotic waiter may take away from the "experience" regardless of how graceful and quiet the robo limbs are. Once again however, mid sized chains can implement catering bots as a sort of a gimmick to ease the transition ("Welcome to Applebees! I am Wendy and will be your caterbot this evening. Tips are not included or needed! I love you!").

6) Agricultural Harvesting

Many types of backbreaking farm jobs currently performed by illegal immigrants can be wiped out with harvestbots. These bots easily spot and pick oranges, apples, etc. This is relatively basic visual recognition programming that is developing at tremendous pace. Harvester tech progress (as pictured here) is well underway even in societies that like to exploit under the table labor.


7) Garbage Men, Recycling Workers, Certain Janitors

This is self explanatory. Roombas are but the tip of the iceberg of what's about to explode on the world scene.

8) Remaining Assembly Line Workers

Previously, factory bots were very specialized. The new thinking prevalent in Japan is that factory bots should be reprogrammable to extend their lifespan. This means more humanoid bots that can be made to build multitudes of new objects, be able to mingle with human workers, and work with each other if needed.

The more one looks around, the more silly jobs one sees that can (and thus will) be replaced. The sooner this happens the sooner the displaced humans will become an overwhelming force for societal change and futuristic welfare. A union of the displaced alone can be a political block unmatched in history. Look back 100 years or even 50 years and see how wonderful it was that things like elevator operator went the way of the Dodo. In 20 years we will look back and marvel at the absurdity of many tasks that our politicians have the nerve to call backbone of sound economy.

5 Ideas for today: Modular rural home, blimp bus, gloryrights, public nuclear plant, surveillance of police

1) Blimp Bus:

The advantage of the B Bus is that it travels in an efficient straight line from point A to point B. It doesn't waste energy on friction with the ground or time from waiting in traffic. The ride is relatively more silent than a standard bus. It's also smooth as you wont be feeling jolts and bumps from road contact. The B Bus is safe as it travels just a few stories away from the ground and has its inner gas compartments compartmentalized for extra safety. It wont roll over or be hit by anything. The surface of the B Bus is coated in solar panels for extra energy and it can even partially store lightning strikes for additional power. The view of course is superior to one from land travel. The costs of B Buses drop with mass production and automation (it's easier to not have a driver on B Bus than a standard bus). At first of course, these would be used for traditionally long bus journeys to areas where MagLevs and other trains don't go.



2) High Tech Modular House for Rural Areas:

Levittown showed how military style techniques can be applied to affordable housing. A 21st century modular home is cheap to manufacture, replace, and recycle. Kitchens, bedrooms, living rooms, etc are mass produced in a factory and then driven or airlifted by an industrial blimp to their destination. Poorer families can acquire a house in one extra large module. Modules are built "off the grid ready" with solar panels and clean water from air systems. A buyer modifies a module before buying the way one does a Dell computer and its parts. Since the price of a laptop went from thousands of dollars to 35 dollars (India also produced the world's cheapest car as well), mass production stands to do the same for housing. Entertainment and furniture systems can be added, subtracted, or reconfigured within individual modules. When one's kitchen becomes obsolete, the whole thing can be sold like a used car and replaced while keeping the rest of the house. This housing is not made of wood. People buy mass produced cars, yachts, and computers and there is no reason to not do the same for homes. It's about time to apply space tech for hyper efficient land living.

3) Gloryrights instead of Copyrights:

Napoleon said that men will give up their lives for a piece of colored ribbon (medals and such). In both ancient and modern civilizations, people were often awarded with triumphs and honors to great effect. It is now apparent that copyrights often stifle technological and scientific progress by killing the traditional open exchange among scientists. Why should a scientist share his research with his peers if it is more profitable to join a corporation where this information will be secretively used to bolster the employer's profit margins?

A gloryright system gives the often introverted geeky scientists and inventors what they crave most, access to international attention (and thus feeling of empowerment) and correspondence with equals. Say a person invents such and such and is given Silver Gloryright. SG automatically allows the person who received it to appear and be interviewed on various popular programs, participate in high level panel discussions, get interviewed by famous personalities, meet high level people, etc. Sure they may miss out on being able to sell their invention to their employer but some material reward is likely to find this person within Gloryright system anyway. A Gold Gloryright brings additional perks. Here is an excellent book on how modern patents and copyrights are hurting local communities and traditional research.

4) Big cities controlling their own power supply and certain factories:

A city over a million people is a powerful unit. Its government should own a power plant and a few factories that produce needed drugs (not just generic, see gloryrights above) and other goods for the citizenry. The government of NYC, an entity more populous than Sweden, is entitled to its own small nuclear fission plant, factories that make clothing for employees and the needy, vertical farming constructs, etc. This dramatically reduces logistical chains and cuts out political middlemen, enhances the power base of the city government vis a vis the state/province, and allows self sufficiency in case things go wrong in other regions of the country. Libertarians and socialists alike will appreciate decentralization through empowering smaller political units with their own factories. A large city is also in a very good position to bargain and negotiate better for what it needs in terms of raw materials.


5) Ritualistic surveillance of the public by individual citizens:

This can be turned on all the time or get activated when a crime or legal encounter is happening. Imagine if a person's car got stopped by a police officer. Immediately the person activates micro cameras and audio listening devices in his clothing and car. These devices record, encrypt, and stream the entire encounter to the person's personal computer, his lawyer, and other places throughout the world (like youtube which then sends out alert to people who like to watch that type of stuff in real time for signs of abuse). Such a system will reduce crime and force politeness and civilization on both the users and those they encounter (whether private or public employees). If citizens are going to be watched by corporate and government entities, then they must watch them back twice as hard while sharing anything interesting in a decentralized publicly available format.