France's Sarkozy is in the Same Political Situation as George Bush

Considering the atypical polarization of French politics since the last election, Sarkozy's road to being elected again is the same as the one George Bush took. Mobilizing conservatives and defending an abstract French way of life



Jean-Marie Le Pen is very old. How old you say? He is older than even John McCain and might not live to see the next election to make opinions about it. Le Pen's participation during the 2007 French elections allowed Sarkozy to capitalize in the second round on some anti-immigrant National Front single issue voters. It wasn't the deciding factor in his victory but gave a taste of a demographic that can be courted in the future. Sarkozy realizes that he won due to greater infighting within the center left opposition and his Rudy Giuliani-esque law and order posturing. He knows the center left will reorganize a bit further to the right to undermine his support in the center and make a sustained coordinated effort to dislodge him in 2012. Five year terms allow plenty of space and breathing room to lick the wounds and make new alliances.

French center-left has more than enough tools and time to capitalize on the economic downturn, prevent Sarkozy's various short and long term economic stimulus measures from being successful, and exploit the potential rift between Paris and the new American administration (with Obama trying to make inroads with Muslims, Sarkozy finds himself in a difficult position). Sarkozy sees that the only way to solve the issue of illegal residents is to socially integrate them by legalizing their status. That of course would add to the numerical strength of voting blocks for candidates like Royale. The process of recognition and proper assimilation itself is political suicide for coalition building with conservative factions in society. Since the political hyperpolarization of 2007 election, it is very difficult for the president to peal away those who voted for Royale from the center-left. People's hatred of him is not waning.

As such, Sarkozy's only real options are:

1) to move further to the socially conservative right by getting the disgruntled La Pen voters to the polls in larger numbers than in 2007

2) to tap into the potential conservative factions of those who don't vote (even for Le Pen) because they know their guy wont win. This can even include those in France who still engage in Christian mythology but never bothered to really participate in the strictly secular French politics

3) to split the youth vote by polarizing the youth along nationalist militarist lines and using his own youthful energies to that end

4) utilizing increased support of the wealthy for media manipulation and social relations cover to achieve the above 3.

Sounds familiar? Yes. The president of France is George Bush in 2002. The economic crisis and gains by nationalist anti-immigrant parties in European Parliament allows Sarkozy a cover of international fiscal emergency and worry to mobilize new supporters. This would include the elderly and disgruntled underemployed young whites and involve constant play on their insecurities and passions. Such a road to 2012 reelections would have to be walked right away to build cultural momentum through media repetition.

The statement concerning Burqas not being welcome in France appears to be the first salvo in that direction. Since Obama criticized France in his Cairo speech by making a point to describe how America does not push secularism on its Muslims, Sarkozy can now begin to move away from public perception that he is more pro-American candidate than Royale by distancing himself from Washington's policies. Surrounding European countries are too preoccupied (with making their annual GDP reversals smaller than projected) to expand too much energy on lifting an eyebrow towards harder nationalist secularist tone coming from Paris. Sarkozy might not have EU's rotating presidency anymore but 2009 allows his country to be in the driver's seat of EU policy more than ever. Germany's focus on the upcoming elections takes Berlin out of the international picture briefly. Angela Merkel will not side her center-right Christian Democrats with Muslim immigrants abroad as she runs for re-election amidst a deep recession.

We can expect President's Union for a Popular Movement to gradually increase the use of social wedge issues like the Burqa ban and even a possible outreach to France's remaining Christian communities. He has already shown a willingness to appeal to militarists by advocating a stronger EU defense force and intervening to broker peace between Russia and Georgia last summer. As former minister of the interior and manager of police structures, Sarkozy is comfortable with rigid hierarchical organizations as well as interdepartmental cooperation between such structures. He really is well positioned to pick up the torch of the war on terror by stressing continental security and defense.

Using Turkey and Iran as geopolitical threats to European way of life plays well to demographics in key EU member states. Unlike Bush, Sarkozy has more skill and intelligence to create a domestic impression that he is a popular, competent, and moderate internationally. Currently, Paris is capitalizing on Washington's strategic public non-commitment to ongoing protests in Iran. Sarkozy's statement on defending women from disrespect (by not welcoming the fundamentalist Muslim requirement of a face cover) comes at a strategically appropriate time. The issue of speaking out against fundamentalist modes of life is bound to grow with the background of Iranian unrest and generate even more debate than before. The elevation of dialogue itself allows the president to show both the leftist anti-American youth and the anti-immigrant conservatives that he is serious about defending the French way of life autonomously.

The wild card is the international crisis itself and the depths to which United States' retracting economic bubble will pull Western Europe after it. As things stand now, continuous recession without further deterioration allows Sarkozy to claim he stabilized the country, to increase scapegoating, and to try to get re-elected on notion that you can't change horses in midstream when restructuring the economy. Conditions paralleling America's current slide into a deep depression are historically unpredictable however.

Obama Cairo Speech to the Muslim World

President's speech to the "Muslim world" was directed at educated middle class Muslim liberals. Universalist respect and focus on human rights destabilizes Egypt the way Iran was during Carter.




Obama's speech in Egypt should be seen through a lens of economic nationalism. Obama's primary focus is domestic and revolves around domestic stabilization through industrial policy to crawl out of the economic depression. Everything he does will have to be sufficiently congruent with that goal. Internationally, we should begin to see Obama trying to save as much money as possible through creating conditions for withdrawing expensive troops and financial support.

Obama chose Cairo University as his venue to give a major speech to the Muslim world. This university was among the earliest modern institutions in the Middle East and its large size created one of the biggest breeding grounds for radical thought. Muslim extremism and pan-Arab nationalism had a lot of its roots among students in Egypt. The historically large campus (presently accommodating 200,000 students) allowed a diverse marketplace of ideas and vast radical social networks to incubate and give rise to organizations like the Muslim Brotherhood. Thousands of the faculty have been there for decades and lived through the consolidation of the Egyptian nation with all the social pressures involved. The previous and current faculty have influenced and been influenced by thought ranging from Ba'ath socialist nationalism, to Leninism, to Nasser's pan-Arabism, to religious revolution, and finally to Anglo-American liberalism. The brief period of Egyptian history as a nation state has seen the country as the van guard of attack against Israel, of briefly lived efforts at confederacy with Syria and Jordan, of leading efforts to reconcile and co-exist with Israel, and of becoming one of the biggest recipients of American military aid.

Obama knew exactly what he was doing by picking one of the biggest audience halls in the Middle East. The educated people who teach and study in Cairo university are used to major swings in national public opinion. These shifts are often the direct result of majority of academic elites being overcome by one particular idea and mood.

Egypt, unlike the monarchist Saudi Arabia and Jordan, has been substantially more influenced by the Western world. It had a longer contact with western infrastructure and institutions (dating back to Napoleon invading in early 19th century), more absorption of British law, and more experience as a non-resource economy with its control of Suez Canal and the Nile river. As such, it is the vanguard of middle class Arab thought as well as the best fertile ground where Muslim Arab liberalism can grow in the region. It isn't a coincidence that Cairo University's focus is law and that Obama is a sharp Ivy League lawyer with a solid understanding of legalistic abuses of power.

Unlike the Arab middle classes and academia in UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, or Jordan, the Egyptian elites are more cosmopolitan and relaxed in regards to multi-ethnic societies, democracy, rights of women, and republican social constructs that separate church and state. Up to 10% of Egyptian population are Coptic Christians whose ancestors have been there since the Roman times. Egypt straddles the key point where Africa and Middle East connects and where endless European shipping passes through (with corresponding cultural influences). Cairo leadership is in control of a state that is as geopolitically important and pivotal as Turkey.

Obama knows that Egyptian elites and middle class are a few years ahead of their Jordanian and Saudi brethren when it comes to political cultural development. Talking to many of them directly was a very calculated move. Creating a sensationalist event and starting major media chatter on Arab talk shows and campuses was a perfect opportunity to plant seeds of a certain train of thought that can then infect middle classes in neighboring states.

That train of thought is simple enough and goes like this: "America is now pragmatic and too poor to be pushy anymore. We will treat you with universalist respect and no different than countries like France (that is also disrespecting universal human rights with pushy state secularism) and leave your societies alone to develop as you wish. Since my administration will adopt a universalist non-preferential approach, you can potentially gain more benefits, money, and influence by becoming more like USA. This can be done at the expense of Israel if it doesn't actively work towards a two state solution."

The president's adoption of a respectful socially libertarian non-imperial message hints at an even colder geopolitical agenda than George Bush's. The venue to reach as many proto, pseudo, and actual Arab liberals as possible has potentially destabilizing consequence for Egyptian leadership. Egyptian military tied government is taking the country on a path towards very gradual secularization and controlled democratization. It is copying Turkey's development and aspects of Putin's managed democracy. Egypt has not been an imperial ethnic core like Turkey or Russia however and is thus less stable since it's still a very young country. The popular dissatisfaction with the pace of progress among elites can trigger a transformative revolution.

Egyptian liberal elites have been uneasy since arrest of their leader, Aymar Nour, in 2005. The worsening economy allows Obama a chance to stir social unrest amongst Egypt's educated public. America's annual multi billion dollar support to Cairo allows Obama to do to Egypt what Carter did in Iran. Social destabilization in a time of an international economic depression is relatively easy. Obama's speech shows a strong intent on weakening support for an already weak authoritarian government presiding over a relatively secular population. Egypt is also not as oil dependent as the regional Arab monarchies. If Obama is able to utilize human rights pressure and universalist respect to destabilize Egypt, the potential chain reaction would keep Muslims busy for a while while US deals with its economic depression. By pressuring Israel and stagnant Arab Republican governments on human rights, it is theoretically possible to cheaply accomplish a chain reaction of liberalization that Bush tried to do by force. The splash damage can conceivably reach Iranian and Syrian middle classes as well.

Obama's speech made a historical gesture of mentioning CIA's coup in Iran but other than that, the tone concerning Iran was relatively cold. Iran's next presidential election will be hotly contested considering the incredible drop in the price of oil and corresponding drop in political patronage. The political infighting in Iran can be exploited against the backdrop of Arab liberals becoming more vocal. A more destabilized Middle East with Muslim extremists, liberals, and authoritarian governments all being centers of force, makes US economy a safer place to invest and for wealthier Arabs to migrate to and study in. A socially stirred Middle East is congruent with Obama's domestic economic restructuring since it can bring additional skilled workers into US, bring more capital, and allow US to begin saving money by withdrawing financial/military support from the region. Obama's speech in Cairo University hints at him being an incredibly cold blooded and pragmatic economic nationalist. Middle Easterners are yet to learn just how disinterested US has become in wasting resources in the region. Obama will try to save billions of dollars and save face internationally at the same time.